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Two days remaining.

England's opening match in Australia begins on Friday morning.

With the help of CricViz, we examine where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be decided.

It's tough to score runs, right?

Batters on both teams of the Ashes divide might be questioning why they are even planning to turn up.

A lot of the build-up has centred around the apparent difficulty of batting successfully, particularly for the opening match on a Perth pitch labeled a "lush, challenging surface".

When it comes to playing in Australian conditions, especially against pace bowling, no nation has been harder in which to score runs over the last five years.

Two key factors for this: pitches and cricket balls.

Overall, the surfaces prepared in Australia have been shown to be the quickest, highest bouncing and among the least predictable in the world.

Speed and variable bounce are the ideal combination for tough batting.

A long-standing narrative from England's cricketing circles paints the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a fast bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, leading to more seam movement.

Seam bowling is a more significant asset than swing in Australian conditions.

After the new ball's introduction, pace bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about solving problems.

When the ball is on top, performances of batters can be the difference, and vice-versa.

If this Ashes be dominated by the ball, a batsman could have the opportunity to be the key factor between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australian pace attack?

For once, England have arrived in Australia with their pace attack mostly fit, while the home side are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Captain Pat Cummins will be absent for the first Test with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unknown period because of a hamstring problem.

Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 Ashes.

Since then, they have taken together 81% of the wickets taken by Australian fast bowlers in matches in Australia.

The Australian team have seldom needed alternatives because of the effectiveness and robustness of the 'leading trio'.

On the occasions Australia have required support, Boland has been sensational, taking 62 dismissals in 14 matches at an average under 17.

In addition to Scott Boland, other bowlers of Australia's supporting cast have stepped up.

Michael Neser, Jhye Richardson and James Pattinson all average under 30 in domestic Tests.

The last time Australia entered a home match without both key bowlers, and were defeated, was in the year 2012.

The past two times they have competed in Australia without the duo, they have triumphed by a combined 694 runs, including a win against England in the Adelaide Test four years ago.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to go past their superstar pacemen, results have not been affected – The tourists should take heed.

Challenging Openings

Recall the time England struggled to identify an opener to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef went through partners more quickly than Watford change coaches.

Not anymore.

Ever since Ben Duckett and Crawley were paired at the top of the England order at the close of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has scored more runs together.

Their success as a combination has been a reason in Crawley being supported through some patchy form.

Crawley, who memorably hit the initial delivery of the previous Ashes for four, has also been recognized as having the technique for Australian conditions.

His average rises when the pace increases.

In comparison, the Australian opening lineup is in a ongoing change, yet to fill the gap left by David Warner.

Following Warner's retirement at the start of 2024, Khawaja has walked out with five different partners in 15 matches.

Uncapped Jake Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an left-handed opening pair.

It's not only the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was shifted to open for the WTC final, then dropped entirely.

Home performances has brought him back, probably returning to number three.

Across seven matches in the current year, the Australian top order have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have performed worse.

Spin war

Between two closely matched sides, there is one area where Australia are clearly stronger – spin bowling.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, with 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to play the game.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a moderately successful gamble, appearing out of touch after a broken finger, while Will Jacks is primarily a batter.

It makes sense for the hosts to want Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the past 10 years.

During that period, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in this country, albeit Lyon's statistics largely stands up compared to the difficulties of visiting tweakers.

Another challenge for Lyon is actually bowling enough overs.

Recall the potency of fast bowling?

It is reducing Lyon's time with the ball.

During the 2017-18 series here, Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five matches against India, it was half that number.

Tests in Australia are 25% shorter since the new Kookaburra was introduced, meaning the spinner has less space to influence the game.

Right place, right time?

England have a depressing habit of being defeated in an away Ashes before Santa Claus has loaded his sleigh.

Traditionally, the series traditionally started in the Gabba, where they have failed to win since the year 1986.

Recently, that has been followed by a day-night Test in Adelaide Oval.

The visitors have a single victory in seven day-night matches worldwide, while Australia have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a city England have played at on 14 occasions since 1970 and won only once, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

This time, the first three stops on the tour are the identical, only in a rearranged order and under different circumstances.

Perth hosts an series opener for the first occasion, not at the fabled Waca – site of past English struggles – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It remains a tough assignment, though one the visitors tackle with no historical baggage.

The Gabba is the location for the second Test, the day-night fixture.

The last time Australia played a pink-ball Test at the Gabba, they were surprised by West Indies.

Similarly, the Australians are now not used to playing daytime Tests at the usual day-night venue Adelaide.

In the two red-ball matches played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia lost one, to India, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a fresh attempt at starting an away Ashes well, though with risks.

The home side have won four out of five matches played at Perth Stadium, though the single loss came in the most recent match – against India last year.

Every Test at the new venue has been won by the team batting first.

England often overthink day-night matches, when statistics suggest the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its traditional red ball.

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